Jayhawks vs. Tigers — Looking at the Numbers
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Well, the Tarheads of North Carolina were soundly defeated by the Kansas Jayhawks last night … so much for all the talking heads that were prepared to crown the “Fightin’ Smurfs” the national champions so prematurely.
Thus, we are left with the aforementioned Kansas Jayhawks, and the Memphis Tigers. This one should actually be quite interesting.
First, there is the run-and-gun style of Memphis. Obviously, Tennessee saw what Memphis brings to the Court back in February, and proved that the Tigers are beatable …
… but not easily.
The Tarheads made it clear on Saturday night that Kansas, in fact, is as good as everyone says when it comes to defense … or that the Tarheads were sorely overrated. I’m going with the first choice.
Thus, we have a potential collision of two great teams for a national championship — one which most people didn’t necessarily anticipate.
Once again, all of this goes to show what the talking heads actually know.
So who is going to win? Well, I know that statisticians believe that you can truly break a game like this down to a bunch of numbers, and those mythical tea leaves will tell you with a fair amount of certainty who is likely to win, in a given situation. I will be the first to admit that I most certainly do not have a mind for statistics. One of the primary reasons that I am a shyster (lawyer) is because I cannot reliably complete the most basic mathematical computations.
I am an utter moron when it comes to numbers…
That said, I do respect “the numbers” and their ability to help shape our predictions and perceptions of various teams. Though I am often at a loss to explain the methodology by which they are computed, I am sincerely in awe of the analyses that great statistics gurus can produce. A great example of that is pretty much anything you find over at the BruceBall Blog. With the game coming up between the Jayhawks and the Tigers, however, I am a little less convinced that any statistical analysis can truly predict what we will see when the teams actually meet. This is not because I doubt the statisticians, au contraire, I believe that this game will be as methodically and precisely broken down as probably any other game this season. All of the brains of the sports world will calculate and quantify every facet of the game that they possibly can.
The only problem with statistical analysis is that you cannot quantify heart …
By the time a team reaches the finals of the NCAA Tournament, there really can be little question that they are really good. It is true that a team can be lucky, but you cannot be that lucky for that long — at least I don’t believe you can. I am sure there are ways of calculating how likely every shot might fall, but the fact remains that both of these teams are fine basketball teams, and have successfully proven that they deserve to be in the championship game. They have proven that they both possess the ability to win in difficult situations, they have the ability to rise to the occasion under pressure, that they are focused enough to fight to the end…
Thus, in my non-statistical mind, the ultimate determining factor in a game such as this is which team has the most heart. Everyone know that Memphis is a lousy free-throw shooting team — no question about it. In the game versus the UCLA Bruins, however, Memphis hardly seemed to miss a free-throw, especially in the second-half. In the end, the Tigers simply played harder, and wanted it more badly than UCLA. They had more heart when it came down to the end.
The same is true of Kansas. When the Tarheads came roaring back in the second-half and cut the lead to 5, it looked like Kansas was going to flame-out. Instead, the Jayhawks looked inside themselves, dug deep, and managed to find a way to stretch it back out.
I think that sort of thing is precisely what will be the final deciding factor in the game between these two teams in San Antonio on Monday.
All season long, I wrote of the heart that the BasketVols showed. I wrote about that not just because I lack the ability to make any other cogent statements on the fortunes of my favorite team, but because I felt it was the most important asset that the Vols had as a team. I think that same is true for the teams that will battle for the championship on Monday night.
So, Memphis, Kansas, which one of you wants it more?
I have no idea what the answer to that question might actually be. Either way, it is guaranteed to be a great game, and whichever team wins, there is no question that they have earned it.
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2 Responses to “Jayhawks vs. Tigers — Looking at the Numbers”
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I did a thorough review of the Jayhawks yesterday and I came away with one clear thought. Neither of these teams have a statistical advantage, nor do they possess a clear personnel advantage over the other.
I want to see the Tigers win, but it will come as no surprise regardless of which team comes out on top. They are the two best teams in the country playing the best basketball.
Hopefully the game will live up to the hype.
Sorry MoonDog, but I will be rooting for the Jayhawks in this one. But it would sound okay to say you have a 5-1 record against the past 3 national champs, although it doesn’t mean much of anything.